The strange state of a post Scotland United Kingdom

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Thanks to Nicola Sturgeon’s strategic brinkmanship, there could be an independent Scotland in 2019. If it happens, this is the strange state the UK might be in by the mid 2020s.

Yellow submarine

The SNP is unlikely to change its anti nuclear stance and that means the current base at Faslane, where the UK’s independent nuclear deterrent sits, will have be moved.

I can’t see the SNP negotiating on this, it would be political suicide to allow those weapons to stay. That leaves Westminster with a complex and horribly expensive logistics job to build a base elsewhere in the UK, probably on the south coast of England.

Bear in mind we’re already looking at a £30bn bill to replace Trident then add another £20bn – and 20 years – to build another deepwater submarine base. That is a fair chunk of UK Government spend on a weapons system that many see as out of date and of no practical use in modern warfare.

Might all that hassle prompt a Westminster Government to think again about the weapons and if not abandon nukes entirely, then at least think about another platform or a strategic alliance? The SNP could not only rid Scotland of nuclear weapons, but prompt the rest of the UK to follow in the same direction.

Checkpoint Angus

Checkpoints on the A1. It might seem like something out of an alternative history novel, but there is a real risk of a ‘hard border’ between England and an independent Scotland. In fact if Scotland got its wish and stayed in, or joined, the EU it would likely later adopt the Euro and principles of freedom of movement. That might mean a hard border with a non-EU country like England.

Flagy McFlagface

We’d need to have a new flag. There’d be no more blue and white in the Union Jack. There are some attempts at what it might look like here. It’s worth remembering that New Zealand recently held a public vote on its flag with some hilarious submissions. If the UK altered the flag, could it still be called the Union Jack? By the way, the current Union Jack doesn’t reflect any of Wales’ national colours. Could we drop the blue and add some green?

Windsor in a knot

The current monarch has a long standing relationship with Scotland, but the new breed not so much. While I can’t see SNP activists seizing Balmoral just yet, I can see a gradual perception that the Royal family is an Anglo German institution and having them in Scotland might be seen as a throwback to the days of union. An independent Scotland would in essence look and feel like a republic.

Good evening, welcome to SBC

There’s a possibility an independent Scotland could have its own state broadcaster, loosely modelled on the BBC. The SNP’s stance is that it will push for the BBC to be federalised, and will continue to push for new services to be set up as part of the charter renewal process. Opting out of the BBC entirely might be impractical, perhaps BBC Scotland might run alongside any national broadcaster. However, would Scots be happy paying towards the costs of both BBC and a Scottish Broadcasting Corporation?

A version of this blog also appeared in the Birmingham Press.

PMQs is rubbish – here’s how to make it better

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‘Would my right honorable friend agree with me…’

There are fewer depressing phrases uttered in Parliament, a signal that what is likely to follow isn’t a question but a mindless endorsement of party policy or a reference to an obscure constituency event that somehow reflects well on Government policy.

Cliche time, but Prime Minister’s Questions is Westminster’s set-piece political event, when the Prime Minister and Leader of the Opposition trade blows roared on by squawking, cheering – sometimes moo-ing – backbenchers.

Trouble is, it’s rubbish. Really dire. Dreadful stuff and a poor reflection of the good work, particularly around scrutiny and checks and balances, that the Houses of Parliament actually do.

Added to which, outside of the Westminster bubble, it doesn’t matter. Whisper it, but no-one is really watching. Most normal people never see it, only a small minority regularly watch. The excellent Isabel Hardman makes that point here.

Only political nerds like me watch the whole thing – and even we think it is desperate viewing, a 40 minute advert for why people tend to dislike politicians.

I’m writing this after a particularly eye-gougingly bad exchange between Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn. It wasn’t ‘incr-edi-ble.’ In fact, the exact opposite. I seriously recommend you avoid it, but here’s the highlights if you want to go start a revolution.

But you know what? It doesn’t have to be this bad. The basic principle of the most powerful elected official in the land coming to explain herself to representatives of the people once a week is a good one. Here are a few radical, but achievable, ideas on how it could be improved.

1. Voice of the People

There’s no reason why PMQs couldn’t be opened up to members of the public as well. In a 40 minute session there could be three moderated questions, with follow ups, chosen by an independent panel. These questions would set the agenda before a  return to the traditional running order, opposition, followed by other party leaders and then backbenchers.

Famously, Jeremy Corbyn tried, and later abandoned, this ‘voice of the people’ approach. However, put in a neutral, non-party, context it could be interesting.

2. Live Fact Checking

Every time PM or opposition makes a claim, fact-check live – the speaker might interrupt to provide clarification – and publish a succinct report afterwards via social media and on the parliament website. It might show up some of the more outlandish spending claims made by government and opposition.

3. Change the Time

Who, apart from nerds like me, is watching The Daily Politics at noon on a Wednesday? If you want to get more public involvement, move it to 5pm, giving something for the later TV news bulletins to get their teeth into.

4. Move it out of Westminster

Soon the Houses of Parliament will shut for years for an eye-wateringly expensive refurbishment. Despite what security staff and others might tell you, there is nothing to stop PMQs and most of parliament taking place outside London. I don’t care if Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn clash about social care spending in a community center in Solihull. It would do them both good and taking MPs out of their usual tribal environment might help the quality of the exchanges.

5. Proper sanctions for badly behaved MPs

I understand that people get passionate, and I don’t want to turn PMQs into a dry policy debate. But some of the barracking, name-calling and general silliness demeans the entire event. Interestingly, this rowdiness – along with PMQs itself – is a relatively modern phenomenon. This would improve if MPs were named by the speaker and given a yellow card warning before being excluded from the following week’s session. Constituency parties might also be encouraged to have a word with representatives who regularly cross the line.

6. Separate Sessions for UK Nations

The current PM is a firm believer in the Union, but non-English parties get sidelined at PMQs, despite the SNP being allowed to ask two questions. What about getting the PM to return to the house for a second session exclusively for Plaid, SNP, Ulster Unionists? Or, even better,  once a term, get the Prime Minister to travel to national assemblies to take questions from representatives.

A version of this blog post also appeared in The Birmingham Press

Using Data to Tell a Story – RIP Hans Rosling

I caught this on the BBC News Website as part of a tribute to Hans Rosling, the Swedish statistician who died today. I hadn’t come across his work before.

I love the way Rosling visualises data to tell a compelling story – it’s a perfect example of where statistics and story can meet and it’s particularly relevant to today’s post fact, alternative truth, world.

In this case, he’s talking about the remarkable progress we’ve made in both wealth and life expectancy across the globe during the last 200 years. I’ve talked before about this, but Hans tells the story far better than I ever could.

The next time anyone – either from the left or the right – tells you that 2016 was the worst year ever and that we are all going to hell in a handcart, show them the video below.

 

Playing Fields of Dreams

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There’s absolutely nothing going on in the world of politics right now…but we are half way through the football season. The perfect time for a parent’s guide to children’s football.

1.Boot-buying

The choosing and buying of footwear is hugely important and your girl or boy will want boots loosely modelled on those worn by their zillion-quid a week idols. Most boots nowadays are hideous and resemble those fluorescent glo-sticks that people used to wave about in bad 1990s night clubs. I once threatened to buy my lad a pair of the Puma Kings, only to be told it would be social death and that black boots belonged in a museum.

2.Learn off-side

You will be asked to officiate as linesman and eventually you will no longer be able to say ‘no’ or hide in time. Being linesman is a kids’ football rite of passage and a profoundly uncomfortable one as you will be scrutinised by opposition parents while running along the touchline in wellies. My advice, go on YouTube to learn the offside rule and then use the flag as sparingly as possible.

3.Help out

Helping out with other tasks may help you temporarily avoid linesman duties. This will mean carrying huge bags of balls (relatively easy) or dismantling heavy steel goalposts and carrying them back to a shed which is five miles away up a 45 degree angled slope in the driving rain (really hard). Try to avoid putting the nets on posts before a game starts, which means finding invisible corners and clips while laughing children fire balls towards you during their pre-match kickabout.

4.Forget about lie-ins

Weekend lie-ins will now be over. Our home games take place 20 miles away from where I live and there’s been 9.30am Sunday kick offs on freezing November mornings. Also, double check timings before you set off. I’ve been known to arrive up to an hour early to be greeted by an empty field, a solitary dog walker and much eye rolling from my young Lionel Messi in the passenger seat.

5.Don’t believe the hype

Read some media stories and you might think under 12s football was like the Hunger Games but played out on muddy fields outside community centres in North Tyneside. In my experience, this is nonsense. The vast, vast, majority of parents and children are absolutely fine. And that old cliché – beloved by grumpy middle aged men on football phone ins – about children robotically copying bad behaviour of Premiership players, also absolute nonsense.

6.Don’t cross the line

There’s often a ‘Respect’ line these days, a piece of shiny tape designed to separate parents from the action. This is the playing field equivalent of the ‘fourth wall’ and crossing it will result in severe embarrassment to your child. Don’t attempt to take part in the pre-match training and try not to interrupt the half time team talk with an offer of a banana and a bottle of water.

7.Enjoy it

It is a real privilege being able to watch your daughter or son on a Saturday or Sunday morning and that feeling when they score, make a tackle or save that penalty – there’s nothing like it. Cherish it and enjoy it. It won’t last forever, even if they do make it professionally, earn millions from salary, endorsements and image rights and buy you that Mercedes you’ve always wanted.

Prediction klaxon – what to expect from 2017

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To misquote Sir Alex Ferguson, Politics,  bloody hell.

2016 was crazy enough but what on Earth could 2017 bring?

I’ve got a terrible record when it comes to predictions. If you’d listened to me there would be an Ed Miliband-led Labour Government in 2015, a narrow win for remain in the EU referendum and a Rubio/Clinton contest in the US with Clinton emerging the winner.

Anyway, here’s a few predictions for 2017 that I’ll probably regret in 12 months time when the exact opposite turns out to have happened.

Europe

Brexit will be triggered in March and this will start a two-year negotiating process that will likely take up too much time and energy in both Brussels and London.

However, Brexit will be the least of Europe’s worries this year. The Centre Right Les Republicains led by Francois Fillon will win the French General Election in May – although it’ll be closer than many think.

In October I expect Merkel to hang on in Germany. I won’t even try to predict events in Italy but expect more political instability following their vote against constitutional reform which means a system that has produced literally dozens of short-lived post war Governments will continue.

Meantime, continued conflict in North Africa and the Middle East will drive fresh movements of migrants across the Mediterranean. That will cause more headaches for European leaders who will, in turn, sit on their hands caught between domestic concerns and the EU’s increasingly untenable commitment to freedom of movement. That means the West’s biggest political and moral failure of the early 21st century will continue in 2017.

UK politics

Theresa May will have a difficult year with Brexit dominating just about everything she does or tries to do. I think it’s highly unlikely she’ll go to the country in May, a move that would be seriously out of character for a PM who looks increasingly risk averse.

Labour will hang on to Copeland in Cumbria when the by-election is held early in the year, but find its majority greatly reduced which will pile renewed pressure from the parliamentary party on to Jeremy Corbyn.

Another event that will add to the pressure will be May’s Local Government elections in Scotland where a number of councils that are hung or Labour will go SNP. This will provide more evidence of Labour’s decline in influence North of the border. For me the only solution to this problem for Labour is a truly independent, pro-independence but with certain ties to the Union, Scottish Labour Party, but I can’t see that happening this year.

Despite their best intentions, I think the Lib Dems pro Brexit credentials won’t lead to a revival in either their national or local fortunes. UKIP will take council seats off Labour in Northern towns and cities, but I still don’t think there’s enough to provide a real shock to a Labour leadership that still lives in a North London bubble.

Outside the bubble, the election of the first Metro Mayors will be interesting. Expect them to become big players on the regional political scene and be feted by their respective parties during conference season.

I think 2017 might be the year the public begins to question austerity – we will have had almost a decade of spending cuts – and if Labour is clever, it can use the social care crisis to land a few blows. The task for Corbyn is to channel some of that electoral anger and paint Labour as the insurgents, pitted against the forces of darkness on the right.

US Politics

Trump’s first year will be very interesting, but I don’t think it’ll be quite as explosive as most people think. For all the foreign policy bluster, I think he’ll follow Presidential form and spend his first term concentrating on domestic issues – in his case this will mean trying to roll back some of his campaign promises.

 

As for foreign affairs, it’ll be the usual bogeymen. North Korea will continue to sabre rattle but I doubt we’ll see regime change North of the 38th parallel. After all, Trump needs Kim Jong-un almost as much as Kim Jong-un needs Trump.

Sport

Notoriously hard to predict, but I’ll have a go. Obviously Celtic will win the Scottish Premiership, but I think the size of their victory this year could prompt some serious thought about whether the top Scottish teams should compete in a UK Premier League. The practicalities are hard to work out – which teams would be involved and in which English league would they start – but the Scottish league is starting to seem farcical to fans and, arguably more importantly, sponsors.

Still on football I’d expect England to do well in the Women’s UEFA Finals to be held in July. I think a semi-final or final spot is more than achievable given their World Cup showing.

In Tennis, I think Murray will nail another major, as well as Wimbledon. At 29, Murray is approaching late middle age in professional tennis terms and I think his hunger will see him lift a trophy in France, the US or Australia during 2017.

In Defence of Globalisation

NASA Satellite Photo of Earth From Space - Stock Photography

Globalisation has been receiving an old-fashioned kicking from both sides of the political spectrum recently.

It used to be a bete noir of what you might call the ‘alt left’, in fact there was barely a protest march in the early 2000s that didn’t feature middle class white blokes – usually sporting dreadlocks – nailing globalisation as the source of the world’s ills.

But Theresa May’s Downing Street address – where she talked about those who have been left behind by capitalism – signalled cross-party open season on the free movement of people and trade across the world.

Meanwhile, over the Atlantic, The Donald blames various international trade treaties, and by extension globalisation, for the decline of US manufacturing. He’s promising to rip up a raft of deals and appears to relish the ensuing diplomatic chaos.

Once key figures on the right wouldn’t have dared criticise a neo liberal economic orthodoxy  – that free movement of capital creates wealth that trickles down – but now it’s a target for them. What’s going on here?

After all, stats on global incomes show that spreading trade, markets and services around the world has lifted millions out of poverty in developing countries.

But while countries like India and China have done well out of globalization – although the gaps between their richest and poorest has increased – the workers of the developed world, particularly those involved in manufacturing, have not prospered. In fact, some have seen their incomes fall in real terms.

This is illustrated in something called ‘The Elephant Graph’ which you can see – along with a detailed description – here.

Those people have got angrier and angrier, and as seen in Brexit and Trump, have given the establishment a kicking. In turn, some politicians are now administering a kicking to globalisation.

Unfortunately, politicians are as integrated into the same unsettling globalized landscape as the rest of us.

After all, it is Governments that set the low corporation taxes that get countries racing to the bottom in an attempt to tempt the Apples, IBMs and Amazons to their shores.

But I’d argue there’s another reason swathes of people are fed up of the political class. They simply get it wrong too often.

This piece in the New Statesman does a good job of describing the ‘serial incompetence’ of Western Governments over the last twenty years – focusing on the dithering over the European migration crisis.

It’s no wonder some think we live in an age of political pygmies compared to the giants of the past.

Globalisation is a convenient scapegoat, but much of the anger with those who govern us could lie closer to home – in the blunders and missteps of national politicians who appear at times to be overwhelmed by events.

 

* This Blog first appeared in the Birmingham Press – see http://thebirminghampress.com/2016/12/in-an-age-of-political-pygmies-globalisation-is-the-easy-scapegoat/

The Victory of The Donald

trumpNow that’s a front page I never expected to see. I was confidently predicting that the Donald would be sent packing by the establishment candidate.

Just shows how wrong you can be…

Here’s some immediate reactions – written on an East Coast mainline train – to another of 2016’s seismic political events.

  1. More evidence, if it were needed that sections of the electorate, and not just white working class people, feel angry, disconnected and left behind. The failure of the liberal centre left to address their concerns or find an alternative narrative is once again exposed. That doesn’t mean they’ll never find a winning position in this post factual world, but they are way off it at the moment. Naomi Wolfe and Ed Miliband get this.
  2. Hillary didn’t help. I believe that she was a victim of historical circumstance – and it is an enormous personal tragedy for her – but the Democrats played right into the hands of ‘The Donald’ by picking the most establishment candidate on Earth. How much does she charge for a speech at Goldman Sachs? She was the wrong pick from the start.
  3. The US is no stranger to poisonous political culture. I was struck by a paragraph in Death of A President which describes how some Texans cheered news that Kennedy had been shot. It’s unfair to label Trump as the cause of this but his behaviour hasn’t helped and has inflamed existing tensions.
  4. We are in for a nasty bout of rabid anti-Americanism last seen during Dubya’s presidency. This noticeably died down with Obama’s election, it’ll increase again now. The US will once again become an international bogey man to some, particularly on climate change.
  5. The Donald faces some enormous policy challenges. Part of the problem is delivering his promises in the context of global complexities. I’d argue it’s harder to be an isolationist – because of trends and developments in communications and culture – now than it was 30 years ago. And building that wall is a mammoth construction and infrastructure task and that’s even before you try to get Mexico to pay for it.
  6. You could see the 2016 result as another example of the decline of US influence and empire. The theory runs like this – the 20th century was the American century when its ideas, culture, and foreign policy dominated the world. The end of the Cold War was its high water mark of power and influence, but since then things haven’t gone well either in domestic or foreign policy. This election could be seen as another sign of that sharp decline. The Roman Empire took 500 years to rise and fall, America could do the same in half that.
  7. I don’t buy the idea that this is the US right’s last great hurrah before it is overwhelmed by millennials and other demographic forces. Trump’s tactics were incredibly effective. Until the progressive centre left wakes up and offers a different vision and better candidates, people like him will continue to win power by appealing to people’s deepest, and often justified, fears and anxieties.